Well if you thought exports could not get worse than the results we saw last month, April certainly was a shock. March export figures shrinking by about 22% was dwarfed by Aprils figure - an incredible -81% decline in export of only around CHF330 million.

The 12 month moving average moved negative, really showing the impact that the global pandemic has had on the luxury goods market. This decline was driven by manufacturers closing their facilities and really have close to no output.

The decline in exports was not restricted to one specific case metal - every metal category saw declines. Gold and steel watches led the way with an incredible -90% change from last year. Interestingly, last month this was the only price category to have slightly increased year over year. Similar to watches by metal, every price segment of watches saw a decline in value and units exported.

The main markets saw a resurgence in Asia, but each country was still in the negative territory. China led the way accounting for an entire 1/3 of total exports in the month of April. Not only does this show a slight recovery in China from the pandemic, but it shows how much the Swiss watch industry relies on this market. On a side note, Nigeria’s (#26) exports grew from two years ago by 1.5%.

May Predictions

While the Covid-19 pandemic did slow in the month of May, it will certainly have a continued affect on exports numbers. We would expect export results to continue to be negative. We would hesitate to say the impact will be as large as it was for the month of April as countries began to ease lock down measures. But, just because lock down measures are eased, does not mean watch stores will regain foot traffic. That battle will be a much longer one.

Enjoy!