Will the Luxury Watch Secondary Market Surpass the Primary?

Earlier this week, SJX posted an article about how LuxeConsult forecasts that the secondary market for luxury watches will surpass that of the primary, retail market in 2033. The article is based on a report written by LuxeConsult about the secondary market for watches that describes projected sales into the next 10 years.

This year was a record one for watch sales. The primary market is projected to have retail sales of CHF52 billion for the past year. This result marks a 12% increase from 2021, where sales were CHF 46.3 billion. A 12% growth rate for the market is nothing to scoff at. A few years ago there were concerns about the resilience of the market. We are going towards uncertain times economically, so we will have to see what happens over the next year.

The secondary market saw similar positive growth in the last year. Sales are estimated at CHF 25 billion, a 20% increase compared to the previous year. If one breaks down the year, the first half saw an immense 40% growth. These results were still fueled by many of the hype drivers we will discuss next. Sure the second-half was weaker, but still, very strong.

The main two drivers that are discussed that fueled the growth in the secondary market were the lack of supply and access for consumers on the primary market to get models they want, as well as the cryptocurrency fortunes that were made and spent on watches. Now, if these are considered the main two drives that will make the secondary market eclipse that of the primary in the next 10 years, there may be some holes in the argument. LuxeConsult projects a 4% CAGR for the primary market, while the secondary market is estimated at a 12% CAGR, which projects 2033 to be the year where consumers will buy more from the secondary market.

While the lack of supply and access is unlikely to change over the next 10 years for major brands like Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet, the wealth of the consumer will change in ways markets can probably not figure out at this time. Sure, cryptocurrencies spurred on a lot of wealth and a lot of the earnings poured into watches. But with market uncertainties over the short term, who knows where we will end up in the next 1-2 years, let alone 10. There certainly is a lot of interest in the secondary market, especially because both pre-owned and vintage markets are included. The hope that we have is that consumers get into watches because they love them, and if that spurs on tremendous growth, then the watch community can definitely be happy.

Enjoy!